This comic made me want to go and read up on my philosophy of probability. For discussion : what concepts are being articulated by the two characters?
June 16, 2008
June 16, 2008
This comic made me want to go and read up on my philosophy of probability. For discussion : what concepts are being articulated by the two characters?
June 17, 2008 at 4:47 am
The first character is making very naive use of a principle of indifference, or maximum entropy, or something else that objective bayesians like. The second character then reinterprets the probability statement as a frequency rather than a rational degree of belief, because this is the only notion of probability that frequentists accept.
The moral of the story is that you should be some sort of subjective bayesian! (Or at least, be more careful than the naive objective bayesian, and more open-minded than the frequentist that thinks the only probabilities are frequencies.)
June 18, 2008 at 7:02 pm
Yeah, but what are the chances that kid’s going to survive with just a stick for a body?
July 23, 2008 at 5:14 pm
Did you ever read “The Lady Tasting Tea?” I think I recommended it the last time I saw you.
September 21, 2008 at 12:12 am
I like this web. Yes,i like it
Thanx. Johann2027